If Not Now, When?

Compass Points

*Quick note- I accidentally published this piece before it was edited- a quirk from using the iPad to compose in the WordPress app and save in draft format, which I messed up. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Sometimes, we know we’re going to encounter a problem that needs to be solved. But when we choose to take on that task may be more open to discussion.

For example, if you know your car is beginning to hit that age where repair costs start to outweigh the value of the vehicle, you have at least two choices. The first involves starting to shop for cars and deciding to find a replacement before it dies on some back road in the middle of the night. The second is to wait for it to die completely, and then make a more urgent and forced decision on alternative transportation. There’s clearly middle ground between these two choices, but procrastination tends to box you in on choices and timing, where doing some advanced planning may give you a wider range of alternatives and cause less stress. (This, of course, leaves you with less dramatic stories to tell as well, so that is something to consider, I guess.)

Many people get stuck in the research loop. They start planning, but they are always looking for that one better option, the one elusive piece of data that will make the choice easy.  I know I get stuck there, sometimes, thinking I’ll find just that one thing that will be the tipping point on a decision.  often times, data can just be more data.

There’s actually a whole psychological syndrome about this called the Hamlet Complex or Hamlet Syndrome, where people get stuck in the “to be or not to be” loop, paralyzed by making a choice, and fear of making the wrong one.  It’s caused by over-thinking decisions and as a result, becoming paralyzed from just making a choice and getting on with it already.

For these folks (and I think we can all go there sometimes), something that forces their hand, like a crisis, makes them feel better, because they can hardly be blamed, the rationalization goes, if they had to make a quick decision without a lot of information- it was an emergency! It wasn’t my fault! We paid too much, but we had no choice! The truth of the matter is that there were plenty of opportunities to do some advanced planning, or make a faster decision, and perhaps a better decision, but they just couldn’t find the trigger they wanted to pull.

I feel this sense of frustration often with some committee work I’m involved in. There’s general agreement of where we want to go. There’s general agreement of what the right thing to do is. But issues like time, money, logistics, etc. all seem to get in the way and give people an excuse against making a decision.

For example, let’s look at Apple’s new textbook initiative. We all have known since the Kindle came out that digital textbooks were coming.  Many of my kid’s classes have “at home” textbooks on cd, online portals to supplement the text, etc. because the current textbook purchase cycle is TEN years.    Is there anyone who REALLY thinks in the digital age, that text books purchased today are going to last TEN years in almost any subject? Do we really think kids won’t be reading digital textbooks within that time frame? Because if we know that’s going to be the case, why don’t we start the transition and planning for that process now?

There are lots of really good reasons why (or why not). Not every text is ready for digital right now. Committing to every child having a laptop or tablet scares the crap out of teachers, administrators and parents, who are themselves just getting used to these things. It will be expensive. It will require teaching teachers and students about digital citizenship and some of them will make mistakes.  Some of the mistakes will be more serious and have more consequences than merely doodling the margin of a school text or losing a book and having to pay for it at the end of the year.  Many teachers may not be comfortable adopting their lessons to an online world, or giving up top down control in the classroom. But I ask again, if we know that it’s coming, why aren’t we planning for that today?

It turns out if you Continue reading

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Understanding PIPA and SOPA

This video  was initially shared by Chris Penn via his website, and I’m resharing it here because it’s one of the most concise explanations of SOPA and PIPA and why people are concerned about it that I’ve seen so far.  If you’re wondering what all the fuss is about, this quick, 5 min video will bring you up to speed fast.

PROTECT IP / SOPA Breaks The Internet from Fight for the Future on Vimeo.

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Why Apple Continues to be Awesome

You might expect this to be your typical fanboy post, but actually, it’s about exemplary customer service.

We had a 1st generation iPod Nano laying around the house.  It had died and been replaced some time ago.  Around Thanksgiving, I saw a notice online that said Apple had found a defect in some of the original nanos, and if you still had yours and it was eligible, they would replace it for free.  So I dug out our Nano, went to the website, filled out all the applicable information, and sure enough, it was eligible for replacement.  So I sent it in, and figured we’d get a similar model back, which we could use if another iPod in the house broke or was lost.

Today, FedEx delivered the replacement.  Instead of a similar model, Apple sent a new iPod Nano- The “watch” variety- and I’m thrilled!  We basically got a new iPod or refurbished iPod from something we had basically written off.  Needless to say, while I was expecting something back, I was not expecting a touch screen nano as a replacement- quite an upgrade!

The trick to customer satisfaction is often simple.  Deliver on your promises, and if you manage to exceed them, delight and as Guy Kawasaki calls it- Enchantment- ensues. Greatly exceed expectations like in this case, and you’ll get people excited to spread the word as well.

Well done, Apple.  And thank you again so much for continuing to make me a happy customer and an even happier shareholder.

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Consumer Spending and the Economy

From the Econ and Statistics Administration of the US Dept. of Commerce

I was with my trainer this morning, and we were discussing post-holiday things, as is typical the first week in January.  And I was struck by the following thought:

We got ourselves out of the Great Depression by an expansion of productivity, consumer spending, and eventually World War II.  (I will grant you up front this is probably largely simplified.) I don’t think we can do this again, and looking for consumers to haul us out of the economic doldrums alone without something else, is a mistake.

In this great recession, we’ve initially looked for consumers spending again at previously high levels.  But a series of articles over the past few weeks, have led to me to doubt that that will happen, in part, because we don’t “need” as much as we have in the past.

Look at the Chart above from the US. Department of Commerce.  Despite an increase in net worth, consumer spending is flat-lining at a decent, but not overwhelming rate.  Is it possible that we simply no longer need any more stuff?

Hear me out for a minute.  After the Great Depression, there was a vast input of new consumer devices that helped make the average person’s life more productive.  Think of everything from telephones to dishwashers to washers and dryers.  Think Refrigerators, TV’s, VCR’s and more.  Even computers, cell phones and the like have helped drive consumer spending.  But this year, as I did my holiday shopping, my family had much less on their want and need list than ever before.  We’re pretty much saturated with stuff, and we’re starting to move into the “let’s spend money on experiences” – ie. go someplace or do something together, rather than add to our inventory.

Sure, there’s replacement of old stuff.  There’s some upgrades to our older stuff as well.  But there’s not a lot of earth shattering upgrades that fundamentally alter functionality or time or anything else that we really need.  I may not be typical, I grant you.  We also tend to be a geeky household with more technology than is perhaps decent and seemly. But even as a self-proclaimed member of the technorati, I haven’t bothered to upgrade to 3D TV or Blu-ray because I don’t see the point, really.

Even the nifty stuff we did buy this year are niche products like coffee joulies, and we’re waiting for our Touchfire keyboard.  My husband thinks the Nest thermostat is something he wants.  But these products are what I certainly would call niche and weird.  Seth Godin has about a jillion blog posts that hit this subject matter, including his great book, We Are All Weird.  It comes down to innovations and opportunities being smaller and at the margins, but doable, and profitable for those willing to take the risk.  It’s not about the mass, vanilla middle anymore, and it may not be about making mass companies to produce mass products either.

I grew up in Rochester New York, which incubated some pretty awesome companies over time.  Kodak.  Xerox.  Bausch and Lomb. Stromberg- Carlson. (makers of Telephones and PBX systems).  It was a town where folks would grow up, get a job at one of the big businesses in town and be set for life.  A manufacturing town, and middle America in many ways.  Many of these companies have moved out of town, or in he process of the big wind-down, as Kodak is dismantling many of their plants because it’s cheaper than selling them off.  And the word on the street is that Kodak let many great ideas sit on the shelf, like Xerox did with its PARC lab, letting other companies with a greater appetite for risk take these great ideas and develop them into whole industries.  (You could argue that Apple alone helped usher in the decline in local print shops with development of fonts, and accompanying laser printers, making desktop publishing a reality, and programs like iPhoto along with digital cameras make printing photos less relevant than ever before, issuing an end to Kodachrome…but I digress.)

The point here is that we have plenty of ideas and even plenty of nifty products, but the end of the mass and the production for the mass market is coming to a plateau.  And as such, I’m not sure we’re going to be able to rely on consumer spending to drag us out of the recession.  It’s going to be small businesses, entrepreneurs, and the like, who now have as much access to consumers all over the world as never before, that will be our new engine of productivity.

I could be wrong of course, but I know I don’t have an un-ending need for new washers, dryers, or other large consumer products, because my current ones work just fine, and the upgrades are not enough to convince me to replace early.    As a result, I’m just not sure where the big consumer demand is going to be to drive our economy forward.  I think the new normal will be relatively flat spending and slow growth, and we should prepare for that reality.

What do you think?  Have I got it wrong?  Why?

Articles and Resources:

Why Best Buy is Going Out of Business…Gradually Forbes.com

 

Americans Plan to Spend the Same on Christmas (look at the trend lines…) Gallup.com

Lack of Hot Toy challenges retailers ABC.com

12 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2012 (many include “recycling”) Trendwatching.com

Online Shopping Statistics Visual.ly.com

What Drives Consumer Spending, Department of Commerce

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Remembering to say Thank You

December is crazier than usual for me.  In this rapid movement from chore to responsibility to obligation each day, I worry that I’m forgetting the most important thing- to say Thank You to everyone who has made an impact or difference in my life this year. (This post may be a little more self-serving than most, so feel free to skip this one, but it was important to me to write it.)

Saying thank you to people in our lives is important to them and it’s important to you as well.  Making the time and effort to recognize hard work, friendship, and going beyond the call- can easily get overlooked in the list of things we “need” to do while checking off our year-end lists.  Yet these small recognitions and public acknowledgements mean the world to people, and helps encourage us all to do a little more.

Here’s a few public Thank You’s to people who’ve made a huge difference in my life this year:

1. Jenifer Fox, Marjorie McAneny, Tracey Gallagher, and Robin Lloyd- for all the work on The Differentiated Instruction Book of Lists.  We finally got the book out there, and my co-author Jenifer was amazing to work with.  The team at Jossey Bass, starting with our editor, Margie, her assistant, Tracey, and Robin who helped work out all the  details- thank you from the bottom of my heart.

2. Chris Penn, Michelle Wolverton, CC Chapman, Julien Smith, Ron Ploof, Tamsen McMahon, and Amber Naslund- What a great group of friends!  It’s been a big year for everyone, and I think it’s at least in part for the support and push we give each other from time to time.  Thank you so much- you mean the world to me.

3. The Social Media Community in Delaware and Philadelphia-  It’s a big group, but Ken Grant, Nancy & Don Dilbert, Jennie Brand, Maya and Rodney, Laurie and Candace, Gordon and Jessica, Nancy Solero, Felicia and Gov. Markell; Lee Mickles; Gloria Bell, Cecily Kellog, Christine aka Purple Car, Lynette, Paul Muller, Bill Rowland, Steve Lubetkin, Alan Chaess, and so many more- you really make things happen and I couldn’t be more humbled to be associated with such superstars so close to home.

4. Chris Brogan, Rob Hatch and the Human Business Works team- I love working with you.  It’s really become a family over time, and I’m glad I can make small contributions to help things come together when needed.  There’s nothing better than when you can work with people you truly care about, and I’m lucky to have that with you guys.

5. Steve and Diane Brogan- You are two fantastic people, and I’m glad we got to spend time together especially during your visit here and getting to meet victoria Wyeth.  That will always be a special memory.

6. My fantastic husband and two boys- It’s been a really crazy year, between the book, lots of travel all over the country for all of us, and despite what could have been a very stressful time, it ranks up there with on of the best years ever.  I love so very much.

7. Cathy MacDougall, my trainer, for kicking my butt and showing me what hard work is really about, and never letting me quit.  The same goes for Elizabeth Stinson, Christina Gorman, Tish Baldwin, Anne Bolsby,  Karen Buchannan, Janice Reynolds, Tamara Fellows, Kelly Figueroa, Melody Ruth, Lenna Jannick- you girls are the best friends a girl could ever have, and your support and butt-kicking have been so important to me-you’ve been there when I needed someone to talk to or felt insecure, and I treasure you all.

8. To my Mom and my Dad- while you both live in very separate worlds, you are both caring people and great parents- each in your own way- to me.  Thanks, and I love you both.

9. All those folks who help out by being my experts- We all need people in our lives to look up to, and to be our mentors.  I have more than I can count, so I’ll give a more blanket thanks to each of you for teaching me so much and helping me better understand how this crazy world works on all different levels.  Expertise comes in all sizes and shapes, and we all need to rely on others to make things happen for us.  Thank you.

10. To wrap it up- Thanks to everyone who comes by and reads this blog.  A blog is sort of like running your own magazine.  There’s a bit of ego involved, mixed with a legitimate desire to help others and spread the word about great ideas, projects, events and opportunities to make a difference in the lives of others.  I’m always amazed and humbled by the number of people who swing by the blog, and I want to make sure to thank each of you, even in this blanket way, for subscribing, for caring, and for taking the time to read my words.  That’s something to be truly grateful for, every day of the year.

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